This is a continuation of studies done during COVID-19 era. This era paved the way for epidemiology to reach the general laymen.
This is the basic rule of thumb no government, regulations or restrictions can do but what we can do our self, in simple preventing virus getting into your body. 

In Victoria, Australia, we observe patterns in Active Cases, Growth Factor (New cases today/New cases yesterday) with declining Spread Factor (New Cases today/Active Cases yesterday).  Each active cluster showed a different pattern based on social and cultural characteristics.

 

Current Status in Victoria, Australia

What we can do at the earliest? Please check the Exposure site list and take action as advised.

Whole spread is depending on two super spreaders. Can this be prevented if they were alerted at the earliest? In a cyber era, we cannot ignore benefits of an inter-connected CovidSafe app.

Whither CovidSafe App, a Gulliver to be waken and reap the benefits. Challenges ahead of professionals and authorities are,
1. Alerting those in contact with infected in time before spreading
2. Use of CovidSafe Applications to efficient alerting, interconnected information sources
3. Keeping infection rate low by trying best to achieve one infected per household or minimum.

 

Benefits of Covid Tracing Apps

Review of currently available Covid Tracing Apps in the World by IEEE Standards

We can be optimistic with following.

1. Improvements in Covid Tracing with
   integrated dynamic resources (e.g., Sensor that detects Covid in a room from RMIT)
2. Vaccination
3. More Sanitising Aid

Covid spread

As shown in the diagram below, virus is generally contiguous when showing symptoms, however, some may not show symptoms or asymptomatic, which is dangerous. The best precaution we can practice on a daily basis is by preventing virus entering our body by shutting the main avenues: MEN (Mouth, Eyes and Nose) and wearing masks. Making sure, before touching MEN, you need to properly sanitise your hands. It is essential you get tested, if you find that you were in close contact with an infected person.

As guidelines in simple say within 1.5m for 15 minutes or two hours in a closed environment. The risk sites cited by DHHS in Victoria. They are under risk only during the days and times mentioned. As far as you are practicing as per guidelines and not in close contact even during the times mentioned, you can be considered safe. However, there can be possibilities that infectious droplets may be present in surfaces before sanitising & cleaning, which may enter the body via vulnerable entry points, MEN.

(Courtesy: The Conversations)

Effect of Wearing Masks

Several scientific research studies have reinforced the importance of wearing face masks (Pl see Jeremy Howard et.al. )

(Picture Courtesy: Dan Andrews)

COVID eradication & third wave in Victoria, Australia

The following chart shows Covid status of Victoria on 06th Jan. ’21.

(Data source: DHHS-Victoria)

Further we need to be vigilant as as per sources mentioned below incubation period is generally 14-days. There can be some possibility that number of active cases may show up by 8th December ’21, 14 days from Christmas where there had been increased activities in the public.

We observed patterns in Active Cases, Growth factor (New cases today/New cases yesterday) with declining spread factor (New Cases today/Active Cases yesterday).  Each active cluster showed a different pattern based on social and cultural characteristics. Overall Victoria was expected to display a pattern similar to Al-Taqwa outbreak.

Restrictions in force,

• 01-July-20: Lock down restrictions came into effect for 10 postcodes (i.e.,  3051, 3031, 3038, 3064, 3047, 3060, 3012, 3032, 3055, 3042, 3021, 3046).
• 04-July-20: Two additional postcodes, 3031 and 3051, were placed under the same lock down
• 09-July-20: Melbourne metropolitan area and the Shire of Mitchell then Stay at Home restrictions
• 23-July-20: Mandatory Mask rule imposed
• 02-Aug-20: Stage IV Restrictions with 5 KM travel limit
• 05-Aug-20: Only permitted businesses to operate on-site
• 13-Sep-20:  There is a roadmap that outlines the steps Victoria is taking to reopen.
  From 11:59pm on Sunday 13 September Second Step restrictions apply throughout regional Victoria.
  From 11:59pm on Sunday 13 September First Step restrictions apply in metropolitan Melbourne.
• 18-Oct-20: 5km traveling limit to 25km
• 8-Nov-20: 25Km limit removed. Third step restrictions are now in force.
• 12-Dec-20: Covid Normal

Second Wave in COVID-19

How did the second wave occur?

1. Human patience got a limit, carelessness and suppression goes beyond
2. Emergence of outlier cases where incubation periods may be extra ordinary
3. Arrival of people from overseas and infectious people showing no symptoms but infectious (asymptomatic)

Third Wave, Fourth Wave, Fifth Wave and further in COVID-19

How can further waves would occur?

Main factor is, arrival of people from overseas.  Good quarantine arrangements can prevent a such a situation. Another possibility is asymptomatic & extra ordinary infectious people defying the currently assumed 14-day incubation period and infecting others.

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General Information

What is COVID-19 and how it affects your body?

(Courtesy: World Economic Forum)

The ground rule is to sanitize your hands before touching MEN (mouth, eyes & nose), and any opening in your body that will enable the virus to enter the blood stream.

COVID-19 Virus on Surfaces

Quoted by World Economic Forum, an article appearing in the New England Journal of Medicine says that COVID virus is capable of remain detectable for a time period between 10 hours and three days on surfaces, shortest stay on copper and longest on plastic.

(Courtesy: New England Journal of Medicine)

How Data Science is shaping COVID-19 scenario?

Data Science will be a versatile tool that will come to aid in handling the disastrous Covid-19 pandemic. When considering Australia, the new infected cases versus recoveries is almost converging, which is a good sign for health services as less demand for health paraphernalia will emerge.

(Courtesty: Worldometers)

Positive news from Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), here they forecast possible end dates for the pandemic.  However all depends on the right behaviour of the community. Sad to note, Singapore had under gone a second wave of the pandemic.

How virus propagates or simple epidemiology

The following video shows, how the contamination and germ spread happens in a social community,

 

How different countries are fairing in COVID-19 scenario?

(Courtesty: Tableau)

Australia’s measures to curb the pandemic

(Courtesy The Guardian)

Our research

We have studied how sensors networks behave similar to an epidemic that may escalated into a pandemic such as  COVID-19.

 

The sensor activation in wireless sensor network or propagation of infection is simulated in a dynamic correlated environment analogous to a highly active social network experiencing a pandemic spread of a disease.

There we identify blobs (pl. see figure below)  and how a pandemic can be controlled by simple practices such as social distancing or fan-out factor as mentioned in our publications.

Here we explore fan-out factor and gossiping or how two subjects communicate to spread an information in complex networks.

 

Source Localisation

Research can be conducted to trace epicenters of the infection regions,  may be using genetic algorithm as we used in,

Mendis, C., Gunatilaka, A., Ristic, B., Karunasekera, S., & Skvortsov, A. (2009, December). Experimental verification of evolutionary estimation algorithms for radioactive source localisation. In 2009 International Conference on Intelligent Sensors, Sensor Networks and Information Processing (ISSNIP) (pp. 151-156). IEEE.

Cracking the genetic code will also enable scientists to track the movement of the virus (Ref: CSIRO & IEEE).. The COVID tracking application released by the Australian government is a tick in the right direction.  To be effective and as an alternative to stringent lock downs, it is expected that more than 40% of the population to download and activate it.

Propagation of Infectious particles

It is interesting to ponder the use of particle physics to study the movement of infectious particles or droplets from a infectious person.

Jamriska, M., DuBois, T. C., & Skvortsov, A. (2012). Statistical characterisation of bio-aerosol background in an urban environment. Atmospheric environment, 54, 439-448.

Further Research

The new scientific techniques such as shepherding, flocking and using Python libraries such as MESA for highly refined simulations can be done with well defined smart agents depicting complex human nature and activities in a social population.

Findings & Conclusion

The final goal of a country would be to achieve 100% containment of the disease when full lock-downs can be lifted . That is when all COVID-19 positive cases to be restricted to identified homes, residences & hospitals, and when there are no unidentified positive cases roaming free in the community, and track, trace, test, treat & track will be the mandatory action.

Related Links

• Covid-19 effects on human body
• University of Melbourne Modelling
• Are Viruses live? (New Scientist) beyond two-fold logic to four-fold logic, 
  More on COVID-19 Virus by CSIRO, Australia
• Tableau & COVID-19
• World Economic Forum & COVID-19 Q&A
• Predictive Analytics
• Coronavirus: Australian AI technology designed for breast cancer patients adapted to diagnose COVID 19 patients
• Dr Michael Mosley explains how sleep could protect you from coronavirus
• Herd Immunity
• Immunity Passports
• Re-infection can it happen?
• Pandemic Drones for Social Distance surveillance
• Corona weakening?
• Speech analysis to detect infection?
• Asymptomatic Cases
• Covid Tracing from IEEE Spectrum
• The Delta COVID-19 variant is more infectious – but there’s ‘promising’ data on vaccines and deadliness – ABC News
• Infection-through-fleeting-contact
• Covid spread
• Apple & Google Joint venture to create Covid Tracing App

COVID-19 and hidden challenge with Asymptomatic Cases

 

 

 

 

 

(Source: University of Michigan, School of Public Health)

Supplementary

COVID-19 and Economy

Behaviour of Stocks

Past Pandemics and Economic Up turns

How Stocks Reacted During Past Flu Pandemics And Steps You Can Take To Minimize Losses

Super funds

How they will boost up Economy after recovery from pandemic

Useful resources

• CoronaHS_14Mar20

• PDF for Printing and Dispaly CoronaHS_14Mar20
• Australian Government COVID-19 Initiative
• Victorian State Government Initiative

Note: This page is updated regularly. All the facts mentioned here are verified by own conscience and if you find any fact not right, please be free to comment below.   If you are in Australia, please devote few minutes to sign up for COVID Tracking App released by Australian Government.

Author’s brief biography: I have done several years of research on Epidemiology, Sensor Networks, pollutant environments, detection and remedial action. I was determined to revisit my knowledge and present my views on current status of COVID-19 pandemic, so that I am satisfied that I have contributed.  My contributions are available as two published theses, three journal papers, seven conference presentations and papers. I am now in the financial sector and extending my research studies with transferable knowledge towards Cyber Security, desktop automation and Financial Predictive Analytics. More details of my bio in LinkedIn and ResearchGate profile.